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Mostly Sunny, Dry, and Breezy This Week

05 July 2016   Dr. Curtis James

Weather temperatures should be near normal this week. 

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

Wow… the month of June was very interesting in many respects. It was the warmest June on record for the official weather sensors for Prescott on Sundog Ranch Road, and the second warmest for the airport. High and low temperatures were about 5 deg. Fahrenheit above normal for the month. In addition, the Prescott Airport recorded record high temperatures on 6/3-6/5 and 6/19-6/20. June 20 was the all-time hottest temperature in recorded history with 105 deg. F observed at the airport. Rainfall totals for June were near normal, with anywhere from 0.25”-0.5” of rain.

Monsoon moisture increased last week, bringing between 0.5” and 1.5” of rain to the Prescott Quad-City area. However, the fuels around Prescott still remain dry and burn bans remain in effect. Unfortunately, this week, a series of upper-air troughs moving though the Great Basin will keep the Four-Corners high in the upper atmosphere centered to our south and east, with westerly winds aloft prevailing. This will keep the weather mostly sunny, dry, and breezy in northern Arizona for at least the next week. Nevertheless, temperatures will hover near normal.

C. James

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology ( Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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